A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
